[The Prime Minister begins his remarks in French]
Thank you very much, Larry. I'm going to start in French, and then I'll switch back to English.
Thank you very much, Larry. I'm going to start in French, and then I'll switch back to English.
[总理以法语开始讲话]
非常感谢你，拉里。我打算先用法语开始，然后再切回英语。
非常感谢你，拉里。我打算先用法语开始，然后再切回英语。
[Translated from French]
Thank you, Larry. It is both a pleasure, and a duty, to be with you tonight in this pivotal moment that Canada and the world going through.
Thank you, Larry. It is both a pleasure, and a duty, to be with you tonight in this pivotal moment that Canada and the world going through.
[以下由法语翻译]
谢谢你，拉里。今晚能在加拿大和世界经历的这个关键时刻与大家同在，既是一种荣幸，也是我的责任。
谢谢你，拉里。今晚能在加拿大和世界经历的这个关键时刻与大家同在，既是一种荣幸，也是我的责任。
Today I will talk about a rupture in the world order, the end of a pleasant fiction and the beginning of a harsh reality, where geopolitics, where the large, main power, geopolitics, is submitted to no limits, no constraints.
今天我将谈谈世界秩序的破裂，一个美好虚构的终结，以及一个严酷现实的开始，在那里，地缘政治——那些大国、主要力量——的地缘政治，不受任何限制和约束。
On the other hand, I would like to tell you that the other countries, especially intermediate powers like Canada, are not powerless. They have the capacity to build a new order that encompasses our values, such as respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the various states.
另一方面，我想告诉大家，其他国家，尤其是像加拿大这样的中等强国，并非无能为力。它们有能力建立一个涵盖我们价值观的新秩序，例如尊重人权、可持续发展、团结、各国主权和领土完整。
The power of the less power starts with honesty.
较弱者的力量始于诚实。
[The Prime Minister returns to speaking in English]
It seems that every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.
It seems that every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.
[总理恢复用英语讲话]
似乎每天都提醒我们，我们生活在一个大国竞争的时代，基于规则的秩序正在消退，强者可以为所欲为，弱者必须承受所须承受之苦。
似乎每天都提醒我们，我们生活在一个大国竞争的时代，基于规则的秩序正在消退，强者可以为所欲为，弱者必须承受所须承受之苦。
And this aphorism of Thucydides is presented as inevitable, as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself.
修昔底德的这句格言被呈现为不可避免的，是国际关系自然逻辑的重新主张。
And faced with this logic, there is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety.
面对这种逻辑，国家往往倾向于顺从迁就、避免麻烦，并希望遵守能换来安全。
Well, it won't.
嗯，不会的。
So, what are our options?
那么，我们有哪些选择？
In 1978, the Czech dissident Václav Havel, later president, wrote an essay called The Power of the Powerless, and in it, he asked a simple question: how did the communist system sustain itself?
1978年，捷克异见人士、后来成为总统的瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔写了一篇题为《无权者的力量》的文章，他在文中提出了一个简单的问题：共产主义体制是如何维持自身的？
And his answer began with a greengrocer.
他的回答从一个蔬菜商开始。
Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window: ‘Workers of the world unite’. He doesn't believe it, no-one does, but he places a sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persist – not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.
每天早晨，这位店主都会在橱窗上挂一个牌子：“全世界的工人团结起来”。他不相信，没人相信，但他还是挂了牌子，以避免麻烦、示意顺从、和睦相处。而且因为每条街上的每个店主都这样做，这个体系得以持续——不仅仅是通过暴力，而是通过普通人参与他们私下知道是虚假的仪式。
Havel called this “living within a lie”.
哈维尔称之为“活在谎言中”。
The system's power comes not from its truth, but from everyone's willingness to perform as if it were true, and its fragility comes from the same source. When even one person stops performing, when the greengrocer removes his sign, the illusion begins to crack. Friends, it is time for companies and countries to take their signs down.
这个系统的力量不在于其真实性，而在于每个人愿意假装它真实地表演，而它的脆弱也源于此。当哪怕只有一个人停止表演，当蔬果商摘下标语牌时，幻象就会开始破裂。朋友们，是时候让公司和国家撤下他们的标语牌了。
For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We joined its institutions, we praised its principles, we benefited from its predictability. And because of that, we could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection.
几十年来，像加拿大这样的国家在我们所称的基于规则的国际秩序下繁荣发展。我们加入了它的制度，赞扬了它的原则，从其可预测性中受益。因此，我们可以在其保护下推行基于价值观的外交政策。
We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically. And we knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.
我们知道国际规则秩序的故事部分是错误的，知道最强者会在方便时自我豁免，贸易规则执行不对称。我们知道国际法的适用严格程度因被告或受害者身份而异。
This fiction was useful, and American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.
这种虚构很有用，尤其是美国的霸权，帮助提供了公共产品、开放的海上航道、稳定的金融体系、集体安全以及解决争端的框架支持。
So, we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals, and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality.
所以，我们把招牌挂在窗户上。我们参与了仪式，并且大多避免指出言辞与现实之间的差距。
This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
这个交易已经不再奏效。让我直说。我们正处于破裂之中，而非过渡期。
Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.
在过去二十年里，金融、医疗、能源和地缘政治领域的一系列危机暴露了极端全球一体化的风险。但最近，大国开始将经济一体化作为武器，关税作为筹码，金融基础设施作为胁迫，供应链作为可利用的弱点。
You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration, when integration becomes the source of your subordination.
当一体化成为你从属的根源时，你无法活在通过整合实现互利的谎言中。
The multilateral institutions on which the middle powers have relied – the WTO, the UN, the COP – the architecture, the very architecture of collective problem solving are under threat. And as a result, many countries are drawing the same conclusions that they must develop greater strategic autonomy, in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains.
中等大国依赖的多边机构——世贸组织、联合国、缔约方会议——集体问题解决的架构，正面临威胁。因此，许多国家也得出了同样的结论，认为必须在能源、食品、关键矿产、金融和供应链领域发展更大的战略自主权。
And this impulse is understandable. A country that can't feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself, has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.
这种冲动是可以理解的。一个无法自给自足、燃料供应或防卫的国家，选择寥寥无几。当规则不再保护你时，你必须保护自己。
But let's be clear eyed about where this leads.
但让我们清楚这会引向何方。
A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable. And there is another truth. If great powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from transactionalism will become harder to replicate.
堡垒世界将变得更贫瘠、更脆弱且更不可持续。还有另一个事实。如果大国甚至放弃规则和价值观的假象，转而不受阻碍地追求权力和利益，交易主义带来的收益将变得更难复制。
Hegemons cannot continually monetize their relationships.
霸权者不能不断从关系中变现。
Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty.
盟友将分散投资以对冲不确定性。
They'll buy insurance, increase options in order to rebuild sovereignty – sovereignty that was once grounded in rules, but will increasingly be anchored in the ability to withstand pressure.
他们会购买保险，增加选择权以重建主权——这种主权曾经建立在规则之上，但现在将越来越依赖于承受压力的能力。
This room knows this is classic risk management. Risk management comes at a price, but that cost of strategic autonomy, of sovereignty can also be shared.
在座者都知道这是典型的风险管理。风险管理是有代价的，但战略自主和主权的代价也可以分担。
Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses. Shared standards reduce fragmentations. Complementarities are positive sum. And the question for middle powers like Canada is not whether to adapt to the new reality – we must. The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls, or whether we can do something more ambitious.
集体投资于韧性比每个人建造自己的堡垒更便宜。共享标准减少碎片化。互补性是正和。对于像加拿大这样的中等大国来说，问题不是是否适应新现实——我们必须适应。问题是，我们是否仅仅通过建造更高的围墙来适应，还是能做出更具雄心的尝试。
Now Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture.
如今，加拿大是最早听到警钟的国家之一，促使我们从根本上转变战略姿态。
Canadians know that our old comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security – that assumption is no longer valid. And our new approach rests on what Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland, has termed “value-based realism”.
加拿大人知道，我们过去那种舒适的假设——我们的地理和联盟成员身份自动带来繁荣和安全——但这种假设现在已不再成立。我们的新方法基于芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布所称的“基于价值的现实主义”。
Or, to put another way, we aim to be both principled and pragmatic – principled in our commitment to fundamental values, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force, except when consistent with the UN Charter, and respect for human rights, and pragmatic and recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests diverge, that not every partner will share all of our values.
换句话说，我们力求既有原则又务实——在承诺基本价值观、主权、领土完整、禁止使用武力（除非符合联合国宪章的情况下）以及尊重人权的同时，也认识到进步往往是渐进的，利益有分歧，并非所有伙伴都会共享我们所有价值观。
So, we're engaging broadly, strategically with open eyes. We actively take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be.
所以，我们以开放的眼光广泛、战略性地参与。我们积极接受现实世界，而不是等待我们想要的世界。
We are calibrating our relationships, so their depth reflects our values, and we're prioritizing broad engagement to maximize our influence, given and given the fluidity of the world at the moment, the risks that this poses and the stakes for what comes next.
我们正在校准关系，使其深度反映我们的价值观，并优先考虑广泛参与，以最大化我们的影响力，鉴于当前世界的流动性、风险以及对未来发展的重大影响。
And we are no longer just relying on the strength of our values, but also the value of our strength.
我们不再仅仅依赖价值观的力量，也依赖我们力量的价值。
We are building that strength at home.
我们正在国内积累这种力量。
Since my government took office, we have cut taxes on incomes, on capital gains and business investment. We have removed all federal barriers to interprovincial trade. We are fast tracking a trillion dollars of investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors and beyond. We're doubling our defence spending by the end of this decade, and we're doing so in ways that build our domestic industries.
自从我的政府上任以来，我们已经削减了收入税、资本利得税和企业投资税。我们已经消除了所有联邦对省际贸易的障碍。我们正在加速在能源、人工智能、关键矿产、新贸易走廊等领域投入一万亿美元。我们将在本十年末将国防开支翻倍，且以促进国内产业发展的方式实现。
And we are rapidly diversifying abroad. We have agreed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU, including joining SAFE, the European defence procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in six months. The past few days, we've concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We're negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur.
而且我们正在迅速实现海外多元化。我们已与欧盟达成全面战略伙伴关系，包括加入欧洲国防采购安排SAFE。我们在六个月内已在四大洲签署了12项其他贸易和安全协议。过去几天，我们与中国和卡塔尔达成了新的战略伙伴关系。我们正在与印度、东盟、泰国、菲律宾和南方共同市场谈判自由贸易协定。
We're doing something else. To help solve global problems, we're pursuing variable geometry, in other words, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. So, on Ukraine, we're a core member of the Coalition of the Willing and one of the largest per capita contributors to its defence and security.
我们还要做别的事。为了帮助解决全球性问题，我们正在追求可变几何学，换句话说，基于共同的价值观和利益，为不同议题组建不同的联盟。关于乌克兰，我们是“意愿联盟”的核心成员，也是其防御和安全贡献最大的人均之一。
On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark, and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland's future.
在北极主权问题上，我们坚定支持格陵兰和丹麦，并全力支持他们决定格陵兰未来的独特权利。
Our commitment to NATO's Article 5 is unwavering, so we're working with our NATO allies, including the Nordic Baltic Gate, to further secure the alliance's northern and western flanks, including through Canada's unprecedented investments in over-the-horizon radar, in submarines, in aircraft and boots on the ground, boots on the ice.
我们对北约第五条的承诺坚定不移，因此我们正与北约盟友，包括北欧波罗的海门户，合作，进一步巩固联盟的北部和西部防线，包括加拿大在超视距雷达、潜艇、飞机和地面部队前所未有的投资。
Canada strongly opposes tariffs over Greenland and calls for focused talks to achieve our shared objectives of security and prosperity in the Arctic.
加拿大坚决反对对格陵兰征收关税，呼吁集中谈判以实现我们在北极安全与繁荣的共同目标。
On plurilateral trade, we're championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans Pacific Partnership and the European Union, which would create a new trading bloc of 1.5 billion people. On critical minerals, we're forming buyers’ clubs anchored in the G7 so the world can diversify away from concentrated supply. And on AI, we're cooperating with like-minded democracies to ensure that we won't ultimately be forced to choose between hegemons and hyper-scalers.
在多边贸易方面，我们推动跨太平洋伙伴关系协定与欧盟之间建立桥梁，这将创建一个拥有15亿人口的新贸易集团。在关键矿产方面，我们正在七国集团成立买家俱乐部，以便全球多元化，摆脱集中供应。在人工智能方面，我们正与志同道合的民主国家合作，确保最终不会被迫在霸权者和超大规模企业之间做出选择。
This is not naive multilateralism, nor is it relying on their institutions. It's building coalitions that work – issues by issue, with partners who share enough common ground to act together.
这不是天真的多边主义，也不是依赖他们的机构。而是建立能够运作的联盟——逐议题，与有足够共同点的合作伙伴共同行动。
In some cases, this will be the vast majority of nations.
在某些情况下，绝大多数国家都会如此。
What it's doing is creating a dense web of connections across trade, investment, culture, on which we can draw for future challenges and opportunities.
它正在创造一个跨贸易、投资、文化的密集联系网，让我们能够从中汲取未来的挑战和机遇。
Argue, the middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.
有人认为，中等强国必须联合行动，因为如果我们不在谈判桌旁，我们就成了菜单。
But I'd also say that great powers, great powers can afford for now to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do not.
但我也想说，大国，大国目前可以独自承担。他们拥有市场规模、军事能力和施加条件的筹码。中等强国则没有。
But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what's offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.
但当我们只与霸权国双边谈判时，我们是在软弱中谈判。我们接受所提出的条件。我们相互竞争，争夺最宽容的一方。
This is not sovereignty. It's the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice – compete with each other for favour, or to combine to create a third path with impact.
这不是主权。而是在接受从属关系的同时，履行主权。在大国竞争的世界中，中间的国家有选择——要么相互竞争争夺青睐，要么联合开辟有影响力的第三条道路。
We shouldn't allow the rise of hard power to blind us to the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity and rules will remain strong, if we choose to wield them together – which brings me back to Havel.
我们不应让硬实力的崛起蒙蔽了我们，忽视了合法性、诚信和规则的力量将保持强大，只要我们选择将它们结合起来——这又让我回到哈维尔身上。
What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth?
中等强国活出真相意味着什么？
First, it means naming reality. Stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is – a system of intensifying great power rivalry, where the most powerful pursue their interests, using economic integration as coercion.
首先，这意味着要正视现实。别再援引基于规则的国际秩序，好像它仍然如宣传般运作。直呼其名——一个加剧大国竞争的体系，最强者追求自身利益，利用经济一体化作为胁迫手段。
It means acting consistently, applying the same standards to allies and rivals. When middle powers criticize economic intimidation from one direction, but stay silent when it comes from another, we are keeping the sign in the window.
这意味着要保持一致，对盟友和对手都适用同样的标准。当中等大国从一个方向批评经济恐吓，而对另一个方向的恐吓却保持沉默时，我们实际上是在把这个标志挂在窗户上。
It means building what we claim to believe in, rather than waiting for the old order to be restored. It means creating institutions and agreements that function as described. And it means reducing the leverage that enables coercion – that's building a strong domestic economy. It should be every government's immediate priority.
这意味着建设我们所宣称相信的，而不是等待旧秩序恢复。这意味着创建符合描述功能的机构和协议。这意味着减少促成强制的杠杆——也就是建设强大的国内经济。这应成为每个政府的首要任务。
And diversification internationally is not just economic prudence, it's a material foundation for honest foreign policy, because countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.
国际多元化不仅是经济审慎，更是诚实外交政策的物质基础，因为各国通过降低遭受报复的风险，赢得了原则立场的权利。
So Canada. Canada has what the world wants. We are an energy superpower. We hold vast reserves of critical minerals. We have the most educated population in the world. Our pension funds are amongst the world's largest and most sophisticated investors. In other words, we have capital, talent… we also have a government with immense fiscal capacity to act decisively. And we have the values to which many others aspire.
所以说说加拿大。加拿大拥有世界所渴望的东西。我们是一个能源超级大国。我们拥有丰富的关键矿产储备。我们拥有世界上受教育程度最高的人口。我们的养老基金是全球最大、最成熟的投资者之一。换句话说，我们有资本、有才华……我们也拥有一个拥有巨大财政能力果断行动的政府。我们拥有许多人渴望的价值观。
Canada is a pluralistic society that works. Our public square is loud, diverse and free. Canadians remain committed to sustainability. We are a stable and reliable partner in a world that is anything but.. A partner that builds and values relationships for the long term.
加拿大是一个运作良好的多元社会。我们的公共广场喧闹、多元且自由。加拿大人依然致力于可持续发展。我们是这个世界里一个稳定可靠的伙伴，而这个世界一点也不……一个建立并重视长期关系的伙伴。
And we have something else. We have a recognition of what's happening and a determination to act accordingly. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is.
我们还有别的东西。我们认识到正在发生的事情，并决心采取相应行动。我们理解，这种断裂需要的不仅仅是适应。它要求对现实世界保持诚实。
We are taking the sign out of the window. We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture, we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers, the countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and most to gain from genuine cooperation.
我们要把窗户上的标志拆掉。我们知道旧秩序不会回来。我们不应该为此哀悼。怀旧不是策略，但我们相信，从裂痕中，我们可以建立更大、更好、更强大、更公正的东西。这是中等强国的任务，这些国家在堡垒世界中损失最大，真正合作中获益最大。
The powerful have their power.
强者拥有他们的权力。
But we have something too – the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home and to act together.
但我们也有能力——停止假装、正视现实、在家建立力量并共同行动的能力。
That is Canada's path. We choose it openly and confidently, and it is a path wide open to any country willing to take it with us. Thank you very much.
这就是加拿大的道路。我们公开且自信地选择它，这是一条对任何愿意与我们同行的国家敞开的道路。非常感谢。